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The forthcoming Rajasthan Assembly election has become the focal point of the nation's political landscape as one of the most closely watched electoral battles this year. Renowned for its history of alternating governments, the state is poised for polls in November-December. 

Dynamic Political Landscape and Past Election Dynamics

Rajasthan's political dynamics have been characterized by shifts between the two dominant parties, the BJP and the Congress, over the last several decades. The state's politics witnessed a pivotal phase during Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot's term, encompassing struggles with internal rebellions and public demonstrations against a backdrop of paper leaks and exam cancellations. The government's alleged leniency towards previous corruption allegations has also fueled the state's political discourse.

Election Shifts: 2013 and 2018

Reflecting the state's volatile nature, the 2013 elections favored the BJP, allowing them to secure 162 out of 200 seats with a substantial vote share of 45.2%. The party formed the government under Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje. In a twist of fate, the 2018 elections witnessed a Congress resurgence, with the party securing 100 seats and a vote share of 39.30%, narrowly surpassing the BJP. This led to a Congress-led government with support from Independent MLAs and the BSP.

2023 Opinion Poll Predictions: BJP's Potential Comeback

In the lead-up to the 2023 elections, an ABP-CVoter opinion poll forecasts the BJP's likely return to power after a five-year gap. The survey anticipates the BJP clinching 109-119 seats, comfortably surpassing the majority threshold of 101 in the 200-seat Assembly. Conversely, the Congress could face a setback, with projections of 78-88 seats for the Ashok Gehlot-led party. Other parties and Independents are projected to secure 1-5 seats.

Unpredictable Road Ahead and Key Considerations

Opinion poll results, while not always foolproof, offer insights into prevailing sentiments. The BJP holds an advantage in vote share, projected at 46%, compared to the Congress's 41%. While such polls can deviate from actual outcomes, they serve as indicators of the prevailing mood at the time of the survey. In the midst of the BJP-led NDA and the opposition INDIA bloc's preparations, the Rajasthan elections present an opportunity for the Congress to prove its mettle and assert itself on the political landscape, especially given Chief Minister Gehlot's stakes in the outcome.6