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Kerala will hold elections on the 9th of April 2026, and this time no one can tell with a degree of certainty the outcome of the election. The incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) headed by the Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan is in a bid to create history of a third successive term with a decisive victory of 99 seats out of 140 in the 2021 election. This time, however, the political territory has changed dramatically.

LDF is also experiencing crushing anti-incumbency despite the 10 consecutive years of rule that have been characterized by the Sabarimala gold scam, increasing joblessness, and corruption against the CM's own family. The UDF headed by the Congress, which with 6,981 seats is predicted to win, appears poised to succeed; however, it has remained silent on nominating a chief ministerial face and is hemorrhaging under factionalism.

Next, there is the BJP dark horse. It previously failed to attract even a single seat and today it is the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation that is led by Rajeev Chandrasekhar, who is a high-profile candidate in Nemom. Although BJP gets 350 to 500 seats only and no more, it will be enough to divide the anti-LDF vote and produce a result no one expected. The voters of Kerala are late and silent in their decision, and in 2026, they could turn out to be even more unexpected.