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Narendra Modi is poised to achieve a historical third term as India's Prime Minister, equalling Jawaharlal Nehru's record. An opinion poll anticipates his return in the Lok Sabha elections scheduled around April next year. This prediction comes amidst a dynamic political landscape, as indicated by a recent India TV-CNX opinion poll survey.

BJP's Strength and Opposition Dynamics in the Forecast

The survey suggests that the BJP could potentially surpass the m-ajority threshold of 272 seats on its own in the 543-member House. Interestingly, despite gains for the Congress compared to 2019, the newly-formed INDIA alliance of 26 Opposition parties might secure a third-place finish among winners. 

Projected Seat Numbers: BJP, Congress, and Alliances

The survey estimates the BJP's individual seat count to be around 290, a decrease of 13 seats from its 2019 total of 303. Conversely, the Congress is expected to secure victories in 66 seats, marking an increase of 14 seats compared to its 2019 performance. In the realm of alliances, the NDA is likely to witness a decrease of 35 seats, settling at 318, compared to its 353-seat haul in 2019. The INDIA alliance may clinch approximately 175 seats, while other smaller parties could claim 50 seats in the Lok Sabha.

Vote Share Projections and Changing Alliances

The forecast for vote shares indicates that smaller parties might outpace the INDIA alliance, capturing 32.6% and 24.9% of the votes, respectively. The BJP is expected to gather a substantial 42.5% of the votes. Meanwhile, the combined NDA vote share might stand at 57.5% if the elections were held at the present moment. It's worth noting that the changing alliance landscape since the 2019 elections impacts these numbers.

Emergence of New Players and Other Poll Predictions

The upcoming elections could witness the entry of new players and shifting allegiances. Parties like the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), aligned with the INDIA bloc, are projected to make significant gains. The survey indicates that the AAP could secure 10 seats, a notable increase from its current tally. These findings align with other recent surveys, such as those conducted by Times Now-ETG and India Today-CVoter, which also foresee a potential continuation of the NDA government.