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There is no specific scientific definition for "super El Niño"—it's widely used by forecasters and the media to describe a very strong El Niño. This happens when ocean temperatures in the Niño 3.4 area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean increase by at least 2°C (and sometimes more than 2.5°C) above average for several months.

Typical El Niño is monthly warming of at least +0.5°C, while moderate-to-strong events are +1.0-1.9°C. Super El Niño events (which are very rare—only a few since 1950, including in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16) dramatically affect global weather with weakened trade winds and changes to rain and storm tracks.

Consequences include debilitating droughts in Southeast Asia, Australia, and South America; extreme storms and flooding in the eastern Pacific and southern USA; and warming global temperatures to record-breaking levels. In April 2026, there are predictions for a strong or super El Niño later in the year, suggesting we could be in for more extreme weather events during the warmer-than-average parts of climate change.