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In February 28, 2026, when the US and Israel used military attacks against Iran, most Indians believed that it was a remote war. It is already finding its way to every Indian home, through the petrol bills, the cooking gas cylinders, and their monthly budgets, six weeks later. Here's why.

India is an importer of 88 percent of the crude oil. Indian energy security entered crisis mode the moment that Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz on March 1, through which 20 percent of the daily 214 million barrels of oil flow. Brent crude increased to $122 a barrel compared to $70 a barrel. The price of LPG had increased by 60 in one week. The rupee dropped to below 92 to a dollar, and this has rendered all imported barrels even more expensive.

In the move to make sure that the price of pumps did not shoot up, the Modi government reduced the excise duty by 10 per liter on petrol and diesel, taking the impact on the loss of tax revenue that would have been huge as his loss. Oil organizations such as BPCL and HPCL are incurring ₹24-30 per liter of non-recovered expenses. The government has employed the Essential Commodities Act and triggered the Indian Navy through Operation Sankalp to secure oil tankers.

The real question lies in the following: what is the duration of this Indian line? Once the crude reaches higher than $120/barrel in 23 months or even more, it is only natural to expect the retail sale price to increase by 10 to 15/liter. Your petrol bill is on borrowed time.