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The Rs 4,000-crore oil bet was made 15 minutes prior to the surprise ceasefire declaration by Trump, initiating the insider trading investigation.

The traders bet on a drop in crude prices in a series of bets, valuing 430 million dollars as little as 15 minutes before US President Donald Trump announced he was extending the ceasefire with Iran, marking the third time this month, and the fourth time of the year, huge, well-timed oil bets were placed before major Iran war announcements. 

The trades were an aggressive sale of 4,260 lots of Brent crude futures between 19:54 and 19:56 GMT, which is most likely to be in the post-settlement hours, which are characterized by extreme thin liquidity in the markets, and the announcement Trump gave was received at 20:10 GMT. 

March 23: Traders bet $500 million towards a decline in prices after Trump said he would delay his Iranian strikes on energy. Betting was made to the tune of $950 million on April 7 before the first two-week ceasefire. Two hundred million dollars were bet 20 minutes before Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open again on April 17, with April bets alone amounting to 2.1 billion dollars. 

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is examining its trades dating back to at least March 23 and April 7 but has not publicly charged anyone as of April 22, 2026.

There was a person who certainly knew something. The question is who?